Question

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

Community Prediction25%50%75%Mar 13Mar 17Mar 21Mar 25Mar 29Apr 02Apr 06Apr 10Apr 14Apr 18Apr 22Apr 26Apr 30May 04May 08now
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction
25.5%
(20% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 25.5%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jun 16, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 18, 2022

Comments

2 comments

I'm not sure there's much of an appetite for this. Quantum computers are already at fidelities a decent amount above 95% for both 1 and 2 qubit gates. People are focusing more on bringing hardware error rates down. I don't think a scheme like this is impossible though, just unlikely to meet resolution requirements in the next 10 years.

@JonathanShi thanks for the help in developing this question, let me know if there are any issues.

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.

Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy