Question
Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction
25.5%
(20% - 85%)
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 16, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 18, 2022
Comments
2 comments
@JonathanShi thanks for the help in developing this question, let me know if there are any issues.
Authors:
Opened:Jun 16, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 18, 2022
Neniu
·I'm not sure there's much of an appetite for this. Quantum computers are already at fidelities a decent amount above 95% for both 1 and 2 qubit gates. People are focusing more on bringing hardware error rates down. I don't think a scheme like this is impossible though, just unlikely to meet resolution requirements in the next 10 years.