Question

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction

25.5%

(20% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25.5%

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Jun 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 18, 2022

Information technology

Quantum error correction

Quantum threshold theorem

Meet the companies racing to build quantum chips

TechCrunch•May 6, 2025

Quantum computers hit a crucial milestone for error-free calculation

New Scientist•May 6, 2025

The Quantum Era has Already Begun

Time•May 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

205

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

229k

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

23.9

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Jun 16, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 18, 2022

Information technology

Quantum error correction

Quantum threshold theorem

Meet the companies racing to build quantum chips

TechCrunch•May 6, 2025

Quantum computers hit a crucial milestone for error-free calculation

New Scientist•May 6, 2025

The Quantum Era has Already Begun

Time•May 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

205

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

229k

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

23.9

Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

Make a Prediction

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

Comments

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

How many qubits will the best quantum processor have by the year 2050?

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

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