Question

Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?

Resolved :Yes

7 comments7

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction79%

Make a Prediction

community: 79%

Did this actually happen?Yes

median 79.0%mean 76.0%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Biosecurity Tournament

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1

Public Health Service Act

Epidemic

1984 Rajneeshee bioterror attack

Public health emergency (United States)

United States

COVID-19

Zika virus

US Department of Health and Human Services

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

33%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Biosecurity Tournament

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1

Public Health Service Act

Epidemic

1984 Rajneeshee bioterror attack

Public health emergency (United States)

United States

COVID-19

Zika virus

US Department of Health and Human Services

The Bird-Flu President

Atlantic•Oct 2, 2024

US Deploys Experts to Deal With Deadly Ebola-Like Outbreak

Newsweek•Oct 2, 2024

The Presidential Election Will Shape the Future of Human Health

Time•Oct 2, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

33%

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Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?

Make a Prediction

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Comments

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?