Question

Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack?

Resolved :Yes

7 comments7

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction79%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 79%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

3.1

Community Peer Score

2.0

median 79.0%mean 76.0%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Biosecurity Tournament

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1

Public Health Service Act

Epidemic

1984 Rajneeshee bioterror attack

Public health emergency (United States)

United States

COVID-19

Zika virus

US Department of Health and Human Services

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

37%

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

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