Question

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

105 comments105

Total Forecasters226

Community Prediction60.2% (50% - 78%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60.2%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Chinese Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

China holds 'shooting' drills off Taiwan's coast, vows 'reunification' push

•Feb 26, 2025

China holds ‘shooting’ drills off Taiwan’s coast, as Beijing vows ‘reunification’ push

NBC•Feb 26, 2025

Taiwan deploys forces, accuses China of causing "high degree of danger" with military drills off its coast

CBS•Feb 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jun 19, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Chinese Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

China holds 'shooting' drills off Taiwan's coast, vows 'reunification' push

•Feb 26, 2025

China holds ‘shooting’ drills off Taiwan’s coast, as Beijing vows ‘reunification’ push

NBC•Feb 26, 2025

Taiwan deploys forces, accuses China of causing "high degree of danger" with military drills off its coast

CBS•Feb 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

70%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%