Question

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?

104 comments104

Total Forecasters222

Community Prediction66% (44% - 78%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 66%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Chinese Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

'We're Going to Get Hit' - China Expert Issues Dire Warning

Red State•Dec 19, 2024

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

61%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Chinese Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

'We're Going to Get Hit' - China Expert Issues Dire Warning

Red State•Dec 19, 2024

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?

61%

If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?

19%