Group

How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates?

76 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Date	resolution
January 2022	1.31
February 2023	1.74
Date	25th	median	75th
December 2026	1.82 ...	8.46 ...	17.3 ...
January 2030	7.52 ...	22.8 ...	39.8 ...

community

<-15

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>25

0.6%

-1.037

1.695

4.738

0.7%

What was the final result?1.31

Community Baseline Score

71.7

Community Peer Score

20.5

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

February 2023

January 2022

January 2030

December 2026

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2021 Leaderboard

Occupational Information Network

United States

In an AI-driven world, the employer-employee relationship is poised to change

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

2025 Outlook: Five Trends That Will Impact The Economy And Markets

Forbes•Dec 24, 2024

Forrester’s Predictions 2024: 60% Percent of Generative AI Skeptics Will Embrace the Technology — Knowingly or Not

•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the percent change in the number of U.S. law school graduates securing full-time, long-term positions that require passing the bar exam, compared to the class of 2022?

2.95

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

6.36

Comments

? comments