Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates?

7
102 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Dateresolution
Date25thmedian75th
community
<15
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50
2.2%
26.92
31.81
39.96
13.4%

What was the final result?30.6

Community Baseline Score
34.3
Community Peer Score
17.5
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting AI Progress
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
AI Progress Essay Contest
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2020-2021 Leaderboard
2016-2025 Leaderboard
LINPACK benchmarks
Performance analysis
TOP500
United States
Software engineering

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