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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
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| Date | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2030 | 30% | |||
2025 | no | |||
2026 | 5% | |||
2028 | 21% | |||
2035 | 41% | |||
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 725
Authors:
Opened:May 6, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035) → Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?
Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028? → Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
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Authors:
Opened:May 6, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch