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Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022?
10
6 comments
6
24 forecasters
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters
17
1d
1w
2m
all
Azerbaijan
Haiti
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Armenia
Lebanon
1 others
Make a Prediction
Country
resolution
Armenia
28.3k
Azerbaijan
707k
Lebanon
17k
Haiti
208k
Uganda
19.3k
Sudan
4.48M
Sri Lanka
172k
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
community
<1k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1M
3.4%
13.75k
21.04k
31.54k
0.2%
What was the final result?
28.3k
Community Baseline Score
72.7
Community Peer Score
21.7
Additional Scores
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Background Info
Authors:
TomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
Geopolitics
Politics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Haiti
Sri Lanka
Uganda
Sudan
Lebanon
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Representation in Cyprus
2006 Lebanon War
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News Match
100K Return to Syria After Assad's Fall, UN Migration Head Reports
Newsweek
•
Dec 18, 2024
The Year in Pictures 2024
Economist
•
Dec 19, 2024
Sri Lanka Navy rescues over 100 Rohingya adrift in the Indian Ocean
Al Jazeera
•
Dec 20, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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Authors:
TomL
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
Geopolitics
Politics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Haiti
Sri Lanka
Uganda
Sudan
Lebanon
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Representation in Cyprus
2006 Lebanon War
Show more tags
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
100K Return to Syria After Assad's Fall, UN Migration Head Reports
Newsweek
•
Dec 18, 2024
The Year in Pictures 2024
Economist
•
Dec 19, 2024
Sri Lanka Navy rescues over 100 Rohingya adrift in the Indian Ocean
Al Jazeera
•
Dec 20, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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