Group

Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022?

6 comments6

24 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 17

Azerbaijan

Haiti

Sri Lanka

Sudan

Armenia

Lebanon

Make a Prediction

Country	resolution
Armenia	28.3k
Azerbaijan	707k
Lebanon	17k
Haiti	208k
Uganda	19.3k
Sudan	4.48M
Sri Lanka	172k

community

<30k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>3M

2.2%

561.7k

690.5k

830.4k

0.4%

What was the final result?707k

Community Baseline Score

108.0

Community Peer Score

35.1

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk

Geopolitics

Politics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Representation in Cyprus

2006 Lebanon War

Besieged and Bombed Amid Famine, Hundreds of Thousands of IDPs Struggle to Survive in Darfur

CounterPunch•Dec 23, 2024

Sri Lanka Navy rescues over 100 Rohingya adrift in the Indian Ocean

Al Jazeera•Dec 20, 2024

Sri Lanka’s navy rescues 102 Rohingya refugees found adrift aboard a fishing trawler

Associated Press•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the total number of refugees from Sudan in neighboring countries by the end of December 2024?

2.92M

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.81k

What will be the estimated number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan at the end of December 2024?

11.5M

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk

Geopolitics

Politics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Representation in Cyprus

2006 Lebanon War

Besieged and Bombed Amid Famine, Hundreds of Thousands of IDPs Struggle to Survive in Darfur

CounterPunch•Dec 23, 2024

Sri Lanka Navy rescues over 100 Rohingya adrift in the Indian Ocean

Al Jazeera•Dec 20, 2024

Sri Lanka’s navy rescues 102 Rohingya refugees found adrift aboard a fishing trawler

Associated Press•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the total number of refugees from Sudan in neighboring countries by the end of December 2024?

2.92M

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.81k

What will be the estimated number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan at the end of December 2024?

11.5M