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What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

136 forecasters

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Total Performance (exaFLOPS)	resolution
June 2021	2.8
November 2021	3.04
November 2022	4.86
Total Performance (exaFLOPS)	25th	median	75th
November 2026	14.4 ...	20.9 ...	32 ...
June 2030	43.9 ...	78.4 ...	139 ...

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CDF

community

<2.4

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

5.3%

2.902

3.168

3.756

21.3%

What was the final result?2.8

Community Baseline Score

14.8

Community Peer Score

8.7

Forecast Timeline

November 2026

June 2021

November 2022

June 2030

November 2021

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 14, 2020

Closes:

Apr 14, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2030

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Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2020-2021 Leaderboard

2021 Leaderboard

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Bell Labs

ISC High Performance

IEEE Supercomputing Conference

LINPACK benchmarks

Performance analysis

TOP500

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What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2.9×10¹⁸

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

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