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What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

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Date	resolution
Jan-2022	13.5k
Feb-2023	31.7k
Jan-2026	-
Date	25th	median	75th
Jan-2031	7.01M ...	71.9M ...	1.12B ...

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1M

7.718k

16.98k

37.33k

0.8%

What was the final result?13.5k

Community Baseline Score

26.7

Community Peer Score

24.5

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Forecast Timeline

Jan-2031

Jan-2026

Feb-2023

Jan-2022

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What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?

368

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

AI Progress Essay Contest

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Graphics processing unit

Will the world's fastest supercomputer please stand up?

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

We’ll Need To Anticipate AI Using A Lot Of Resources In Tomorrow’s World

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?

368

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What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?

Comments

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD?