Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates?

30
103 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Dateresolution
Date25thmedian75th
community
<8
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
0.2%
14.99
15.6
15.74

What was the final result?15.8

Community Baseline Score
180.7
Community Peer Score
85.3
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting AI Progress
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Technical Benchmarks
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2021 Leaderboard
2020-2021 Leaderboard
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Machine learning
Linguistics
Information technology

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