M

Question

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

Community Prediction10%20%30%40%50%Jan 28Feb 01Feb 05Feb 09Feb 13Feb 17Feb 21Feb 25Mar 01Mar 05Mar 09Mar 13Mar 17Mar 21Mar 25now
Total Forecasters1739
Community Prediction
27%
(20% - 33%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 27%
2
Despite the increase in troop numbers, Russia has been unable to induce sufficient numbers of volunteers for combat, with official numbers of 'volunteer recruits' being exaggerated.
2
Russia's economy is under pressure with inflation spiking, leading to a record high interest rate of 21% as of December 2024.
1
Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.
1
Putin won the 2024 Russian election with 87% of the vote, indicating strong political control and consolidation of power.
Opened:Jun 28, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 29, 2022

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