📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

51
200
Total Forecasters720
Community Prediction25% (17.5% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 25%
Russia's economy is under pressure with inflation spiking, leading to a record high interest rate of 21% as of December 2024.
Despite the increase in troop numbers, Russia has been unable to induce sufficient numbers of volunteers for combat, with official numbers of 'volunteer recruits' being exaggerated.
Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.
Putin won the 2024 Russian election with 87% of the vote, indicating strong political control and consolidation of power.
Authors:
tryingToPredictFuture
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Geopolitics
Russo-Ukrainian War
Russo-Japanese War
Russian Revolution
Russian Civil War
First Chechen War
Second Chechen War
Crimea
Russia

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