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Will the US enter a recession before the following dates?

237 comments237

461 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 146

2024

2023

2025

Make a Prediction

Period Ending before		My Prediction		Me
2025	5%

2024	20%

2023	12%

Authors:

casens

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Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Recession

National Bureau of Economic Research

Gross domestic product

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

United States

International Monetary Fund

University of Michigan

Federal Reserve

The market's blistering postelection rally has some on Wall Street sounding the alarm for 2025

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Why the last bears on Wall Street are worried about the stock market in 2025

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

There's a sign flashing in the labor market that the US may be slipping into a recession, SocGen says

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?

20%

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

24.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Recession

National Bureau of Economic Research

Gross domestic product

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

United States

International Monetary Fund

University of Michigan

Federal Reserve

The market's blistering postelection rally has some on Wall Street sounding the alarm for 2025

Business Insider•Dec 11, 2024

Why the last bears on Wall Street are worried about the stock market in 2025

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

There's a sign flashing in the labor market that the US may be slipping into a recession, SocGen says

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?

20%

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

24.1%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

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Will the US enter a recession before the following dates?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Comments

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

Will a recession begin in the United States in the following years?

Will there be a global recession before 2026, according to the IMF?

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?