Question

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction2036-04-02 (2028-11-30 - 2057-10-16)

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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2028-11-30 04:25

2036-04-02 18:32

2057-10-16 11:25

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casens

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

The fragility of nuclear deterrence

Strategic Culture•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

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If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Make a Prediction

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

Comments

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?