Question

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction

2035

(2028 - 2054)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2028	2035	2054
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2028	—
median	2035	—
upper 75%	2054	—

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Apr 27, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 29, 2022

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