Question

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction2037-05-28

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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2029-02-10 20:57

2037-05-28 14:44

2059-10-28 18:52

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%