Group

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

196 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Tesla

Any Service

Waymo

Make a Prediction

Driverless Service	25th	median	75th
Any Service	2025-06-29 ...	2026-11-16 ...	2028-11-14 ...
Tesla	2026-01-04 ...	2027-04-21 ...	2029-06-05 ...
Waymo	2025-05-20 ...	2026-09-23 ...	2028-07-27 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2034-12-23

...

2025-06-29 04:47

2026-11-16 22:26

2028-11-14 09:34

6.5%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

isinlor casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Waymo is sending autonomous vehicles to Japan for first international tests

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo Robotaxis Are Heading To Tokyo For Their First Overseas Road Tests

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo robotaxis are coming to Tokyo in 2025

TechCrunch•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.01

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-09-09

Comments

? comments

Authors:

isinlor casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Waymo is sending autonomous vehicles to Japan for first international tests

Verge•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo Robotaxis Are Heading To Tokyo For Their First Overseas Road Tests

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Waymo robotaxis are coming to Tokyo in 2025

TechCrunch•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.01

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-09-09

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Comments

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?