Group

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

195 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Tesla

Waymo

Any Service

Make a Prediction

Driverless Service	25th	median	75th
Any Service	2025-06-17 ...	2026-11-10 ...	2029-01-02 ...
Tesla	2025-12-27 ...	2027-07-12 ...	2029-12-17 ...
Waymo	2025-04-24 ...	2027-01-29 ...	2028-12-05 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2034-12-23

...

2025-06-17 08:46

2026-11-10 07:51

2029-01-02 15:37

6.8%

Authors:

isinlor casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.24

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-04-03

Comments

? comments

Authors:

isinlor casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.24

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-04-03