Group

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Forecast Timeline

Tesla

Waymo

Any Service

Make a Prediction

	25th	median	75th
Any Service	2025-05 ...	2026-10 ...	2029-01 ...
Tesla	2025-12 ...	2027-07 ...	2029-12 ...
Waymo	2025-02 ...	2026-11 ...	2028-10 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2034-12

...

2025-05

2026-10

2029-01

7.6%

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-08

Comments

? comments

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.03

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

2037-08

MetaculusM

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When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

Comments

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?