Question

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters93

Community Prediction267 (211 - 340)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>730

...

210.9

267.2

340.1

1.8%

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Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Virology

Antigenic shift

COVID-19

Emergency Use Authorization

Epidemiology

Food and Drug Administration

United States

Medicine

Immunology

Biden Quietly Extends Covid 'Emergency Declaration' to Protect Big Pharma From Liability Until 2029

Townhall•Dec 19, 2024

America’s Bird-Flu Luck Has Officially Run Out

Atlantic•Dec 20, 2024

Trump leads, and his party follows, on vaccine skepticism

•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

224

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Virology

Antigenic shift

COVID-19

Emergency Use Authorization

Epidemiology

Food and Drug Administration

United States

Medicine

Immunology

Biden Quietly Extends Covid 'Emergency Declaration' to Protect Big Pharma From Liability Until 2029

Townhall•Dec 19, 2024

America’s Bird-Flu Luck Has Officially Run Out

Atlantic•Dec 20, 2024

Trump leads, and his party follows, on vaccine skepticism

•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

224

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.11

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If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

Make a Prediction

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

Comments

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?