Question

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved vaccine?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters92

Community Prediction269

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>730

...

213.2

269.5

343.3

1.8%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

Emergency Use Authorization

Epidemiology

Food and Drug Administration

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

226

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.06

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Biosecurity Tournament

Emergency Use Authorization

Epidemiology

Food and Drug Administration

How will a Trump presidency reshape US public health? A look at his plans.

USA Today•Nov 13, 2024

How the CDC could change under the next Trump administration

NPR Online News•Nov 15, 2024

What RFK, Jr.’s Health Cabinet Position under Trump Might Look Like

Scientific American•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is a new pandemic before 2032, how long (in days) will it be from the first US laboratory-confirmed case until the first FDA-approved treatment?

226

Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.06