Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

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M

Question

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

44
70
Total Forecasters171
Community Prediction2028-12-04 (2026-05-23 - 2033-08-19)

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weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2100-01-02
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2026-05-23 23:59
2028-12-04 11:24
2033-08-19 19:08
1.6%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Demonstrations
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Loebner Prize
Alan Turing
Turing test
Philosophy

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