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Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

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26 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Poland

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

United States

Turkey

Make a Prediction

Country		My Prediction		Me
Poland	ambiguous

Latvia	ambiguous

Lithuania	ambiguous

Estonia	ambiguous

United States	ambiguous

Turkey	ambiguous

Romania	ambiguous

Norway	ambiguous

United Kingdom	ambiguous

Hungary	ambiguous

Slovakia	ambiguous

France	ambiguous

Resolved Dec 14, 2022

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 15, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2039

North Atlantic Treaty

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Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

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Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Aug 15, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2039

North Atlantic Treaty

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Could Europe withstand a Russian attack WITHOUT US support? How continent's NATO armies match up against Putin's might - amid fears Trump will quit the alliance

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Russian State TV Warns Kremlin Can Now Strike 3 NATO Allies' Capitals

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch