Question

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Resolved :No0.1%

15 comments15

Total Forecasters74

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

75.6

Community Peer Score

10.4

Authors:

demirev

Opened:

Aug 12, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Balkans

Army of Republika Srpska

Kosovo

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

60.2%

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

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