Question

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

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Authors:

demirev

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Balkans

Army of Republika Srpska

Kosovo

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Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

3.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

demirev

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Balkans

Army of Republika Srpska

Kosovo

Russia Warns Of NATO War Within 10 Years

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Ukraine’s scooter bomb assassination could change the war… but not for the reasons you might think

Independent•Dec 17, 2024

News Analysis: Russian general’s assassination in Moscow: Chilling new phase in Ukraine war?

•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

3.2%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

Comments

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?