Group

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Make a Prediction

TBD group label	resolution
2022	83.8k
2023	9.22k
	25th	median	75th
2024	11k ...	19.1k ...	35.7k ...
2025	13.7k ...	32.8k ...	87.9k ...

My Prediction

community

<100

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

0.3%

10.97k

19.08k

35.71k

0.3%

Forecast Timeline

2022

2025

2024

2023

Authors:

Primer

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

Medicine

Virology

Epidemiology

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

10%

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Primer

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

Medicine

Virology

Epidemiology

New Mpox variant has just been detected in Germany for the first time

Canary•Oct 22, 2024

Germany’s disease control center reports 1st case of new mpox variant

Associated Press•Oct 22, 2024

Mpox virus outbreak: Has the deadly new variant reached the UK and what are the symptoms?

Independent•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

10%

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09