Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, how much will China's real GDP (PPP) grow over the next 4 quarters?

6
2
Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction-1.62 (-8.39 - 4.09)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
<-35
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>12
...
...
...
...
...
1.0%
-8.388
-1.62
4.088
5.2%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Mainland China
People's Liberation Army
China
Taiwan–US relations
Gross domestic product
Taiwan
List of countries by past and projected GDP (PPP)

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