Question

If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?

Resolved :Yes

34 comments34

Total Forecasters122

Community Prediction96%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

33.0

Community Peer Score

8.2

median 96.0%mean 92.0%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

Presidential Records Act

United States

Mar-a-Lago

Donald Trump

Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution

Prosecutors urge judge to consider postponing Trump's sentencing until after his presidency

CBS•Nov 20, 2024

How All Of Trump’s Criminal Cases Fell Apart—As Hush Money Sentencing Now Postponed

Forbes•Nov 23, 2024

Donald Trump's Legal Team Issues Major Request to Judge Merchan

Newsweek•Nov 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

1.7%

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Comments

? comments