Question

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction40% (15% - 45%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 15, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan

Political status of Taiwan

Provinces of China

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

China accuses U.S. of 'serious regression' in its Taiwan position after change to State Dept. website

NBC•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

41%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 15, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan

Political status of Taiwan

Provinces of China

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

China accuses U.S. of 'serious regression' in its Taiwan position after change to State Dept. website

NBC•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

41%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%