Question

Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction38% (10% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan

Political status of Taiwan

Provinces of China

The free world has abandoned Hong Kong

Spectator (UK)•Dec 19, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Republic of China Armed Forces

United Nations

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan

Political status of Taiwan

Provinces of China

The free world has abandoned Hong Kong

Spectator (UK)•Dec 19, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

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Will any current provincial level administrative divisions of China formally declare independence from China before 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Comments

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?