Question

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction

(1% - 10%)

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50%

community: 4%

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Authors:

rendall

Opened:

Aug 17, 2022

Closes:

Aug 14, 2032

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 14, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 19, 2022

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

rendall

Opened:

Aug 17, 2022

Closes:

Aug 14, 2032

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 14, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 19, 2022

Elon Musk's latest failure triggers phenomenon that's never been seen before

Daily Mail•May 12, 2025

London to New York in 30 MINUTES: SpaceX's Starship could soon transport passengers on long-distance trips at dizzying speeds of up to 16,700mph - as Elon Musk claims 'this is now possible' following

Daily Mail•May 9, 2025

SpaceX to launch Super Heavy-Starship today in 6th test flight. Here's what to know.

CBS•May 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

Jul 2034

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?

Make a Prediction

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

Will a space elevator successfully be built on Earth before 2100?

Comments

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

Will a space elevator successfully be built on Earth before 2100?

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