Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

7
6
9 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Yearresolution
Year25thmedian75th
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
6.528
11.9
19.52

What was the final result?7.08

Community Baseline Score
55.1
Community Peer Score
7.4
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 6
Authors:
zoehtwilliams
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Technical Benchmarks
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2022-2023 Leaderboard
2022 Leaderboard
Sam Altman
Information technology
OpenAI
Software engineering
DeepMind

Comments

? comments