Group

Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

56 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Year		My Prediction		Me
2035	50%

2030	30%

2025	0.9%

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Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

2025

Authors:

xsg1313

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Republic of China Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

China’s military is staying silent on its recent activity around Taiwan

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

xsg1313

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Republic of China Armed Forces

People's Liberation Army

China’s military is staying silent on its recent activity around Taiwan

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Comments

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

Will China impose a customs quarantine on Taiwan before the following years?

Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?