Question

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?

Resolved :29.8k31.2k

4 comments4

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction31.2k (27.4k - 35.3k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>500k

...

27.41k

31.16k

35.27k

0.1%

What was the final result?29.8k

Community Baseline Score

131.5

Community Peer Score

45.3

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Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2003 Midwest monkeypox outbreak

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

CDC Confirms First Severe Case of H5N1 Bird Flu in the United States

•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

23.9k

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2003 Midwest monkeypox outbreak

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

CDC Confirms First Severe Case of H5N1 Bird Flu in the United States

•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

23.9k

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.09

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?

Make a Prediction

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Comments

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

If at least 100 human cases of Clade I mpox are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?