Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

When will Liz Truss no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

Resolved :Oct 25, 20222022-10-30
14
55
Total Forecasters130
Community Prediction2022-10-30 (2022-10-09 - 2022-11-22)

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My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2030-01-01
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...
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2022-10-09 08:16
2022-10-30 01:40
2022-11-22 11:56
0.1%

What was the final result?Oct 25, 2022

Community Baseline Score
0.8
Community Peer Score
1.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
General election
Conservative Party (UK)
United Kingdom
Motions of no confidence in the United Kingdom
Labour Party (UK)
Prime Minister of the UK
Liz Truss

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