Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?

Resolved :Below lower bound-15
2
11
Total Forecasters30
Community Prediction...

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<-15
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>15
...
...
...
...
...
60.4%
<-15
<-15
-11.76
0.3%

What was the final result?Below lower bound

Community Baseline Score
29.2
Community Peer Score
42.4
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2022 Leaderboard
Theresa May
Politico
Conservative Party (UK)
United Kingdom
Labour Party (UK)
Liz Truss
Boris Johnson

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