Question

Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction8% (8% - 11%)

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50%

community: 8%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

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The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

2022 Leaderboard

Arms Control Association

Federal Agency on Atomic Energy (Russia)

Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea

China

List of parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

South Africa

Peaceful nuclear explosion

US Department of State

China continues nuclear buildup, has strengthened ties to Russia, Defense Dept report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

China has expanded its nuclear force and strengthened ties to Russia, the Pentagon says

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon’s annual China-power report notes nuclear, influence threats—but also corruption

Defense One•Dec 19, 2024

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Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

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