Question

Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?

Resolved :No

290 comments290

Total Forecasters735

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

95.8

Community Peer Score

10.6

median 1.0%mean 1.4%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Ukraine–NATO relations

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Donetsk Republic

Luhansk People's Republic

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Ukraine–NATO relations

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Donetsk Republic

Luhansk People's Republic

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