Question

Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?

Resolved :Yes

21 comments21

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction20%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-57.6

Community Peer Score

2.6

median 20.0%mean 23.1%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Politics

List of aircraft carriers of the United States Navy

Baltic Sea

Black Sea

Russo-Ukrainian War

Hainan Island incident

Poland

1988 Black Sea bumping incident

NATO

Belarus

Ukraine–NATO relations

Fishermen set out to catch halibut... and net a US nuclear submarine! 7,800-tonne vessel drags fishing crew's net for two miles off Norway

Daily Mail•Nov 15, 2024

NATO jets scrambled after Russian aircraft spotted over Baltic Sea and off Norway

CBS•Nov 15, 2024

Could Biden's Ukraine Missile Move Trigger World War III? Experts' Verdicts

Newsweek•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments