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What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

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81 forecasters

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Year	resolution
2023	3.96
Year	25th	median	75th
2025	3.94 ...	4.24 ...	4.56 ...
2032	4.7 ...	5.81 ...	7.06 ...
2052	11.5 ...	20 ...	33.9 ...
2122	21.2 ...	42.8 ...	68.5 ...

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

1.6%

3.877

4.161

4.424

0.5%

What was the final result?3.96

Community Baseline Score

70.8

Community Peer Score

13.9

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

2025

2023

2122

2032

2052

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting Our World in Data

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What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

80.7

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

21.5k

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

17%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting Our World in Data

Economy & Business

Technology

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

Energy Information Administration

Australia news live: Qantas warns travellers of potential delays as engineers go on strike; Coalition to reveal nuclear power plan

Guardian•Dec 13, 2024

Energy generators poke holes in Dutton’s nuclear plan as questions over costings pile up

Guardian•Dec 14, 2024

California's Green Dream Faces a Reality Check

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

80.7

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

21.5k

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

17%

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What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

Comments

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?