Question

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction55% (30% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Oct 25, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China

American Institute in Taiwan

Taiwan–US relations

Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States

Republic of China Navy

Taiwan

United States

US drops wording saying it does not support Taiwan independence

Al Jazeera•Feb 17, 2025

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

China says US has ‘gravely backpedaled’ on Taiwan

Associated Press•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?

11.7

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

41%

Comments

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