📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

2
9
Total Forecasters38
Community Prediction52% (30% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 52%
Authors:
Cato
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Geopolitics
People's Liberation Army
China
American Institute in Taiwan
Taiwan–US relations
Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States
Republic of China Navy
Taiwan
United States

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