Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

2
9
Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction43.7% (25% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 43.7%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Cato
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Geopolitics
People's Liberation Army
China
American Institute in Taiwan
Taiwan–US relations
Republic of China Navy
Taiwan
United States
Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States

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