Question

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction20%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

median 20.0%mean 19.5%

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Taiwan

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

39%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

Taiwan–US relations

Republic of China Navy

Taiwan

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If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

39%