What will be the total number of fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years?
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This question will resolve as the total number of fatalities caused by terrorism in the world in the respective years, according to Our World in Data. For example, in 2019 the total number of fatalities from terrorist attacks in the world was 20,329.
The resolution for each year will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by Our World in Data; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.
If data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion. If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or resolve as Ambiguous.
If humanity goes extinct or ceases to have a developed society prior to a listed year, that sub-question will resolve as Ambiguous.
Fine Print
- If humanity establishes off-Earth colonies and Our World in Data adds a "Total Humanity" measure (or equivalent) to the chart, that measure will be used instead of the "World" measure.
- The number of fatalities will include humans only, where "humans" will be defined as members of a species with enough biological similarity to reproduce with typical 2022 humans with medical assistance which could be available in the year 1900.
- For the purposes of this question, humans (as defined above) will be considered to be extinct if the total human population is less than 5% of their previous peak population.
- "Ceasing to have a developed society" will be defined as world GDP declining to below 100 billion USD (in 2021 USD, with adjustments for Purchasing Power Parity)
Our World in Data notes that "terrorism" is a difficult term to define:
The key problem is that terrorism is difficult to distinguish from other forms of political violence and violent crime, such as state-based armed conflict, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, hate crime, and homicide. The lines between these different forms of violence are often blurry.
To quantify casualties from global terrorism, OWID uses the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), which is maintained by the University of Maryland's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). GTD uses this definition of terrorism:
The GTD defines a terrorist attack as the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation. In practice this means in order to consider an incident for inclusion in the GTD, all three of the following attributes must be present:- The incident must be intentional – the result of a conscious calculation on the part of a perpetrator.
- The incident must entail some level of violence or immediate threat of violence -including property violence, as well as violence against people.
- The perpetrators of the incidents must be sub-national actors. The database does not include acts of state terrorism.In addition, at least two of the following three criteria must be present for an incident to be included in the GTD:- Criterion 1: The act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic, religious, or social goal. In terms of economic goals, the exclusive pursuit of profit does not satisfy this criterion. It must involve the pursuit of more profound, systemic economic change.
- Criterion 2: There must be evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, or convey some other message to a larger audience (or audiences) than the immediate victims. It is the act taken as a totality that is considered, irrespective if every individual involved in carrying out the act was aware of this intention. As long as any of the planners or decision-makers behind the attack intended to coerce, intimidate or publicize, the intentionality criterion is met.
- Criterion 3: The action must be outside the context of legitimate warfare activities. That is, the act must be outside the parameters permitted by international humanitarian law (particularly the prohibition against deliberately targeting civilians or non-combatants).
OWID discusses some of the limitations of GTD and other sources in this article.
Forecast Timeline
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Comments
My guess is that things are getting worse, leading to more non-state actors and more violence.
- Russia supporting various breakaways, allying with Iran, something something sectarian violence in the middle east
- Greater access to drones by non state actors seems likely to cause fatalities (or are drones mainly used to attack military targets?)
- Less international cooperation on this stuff. This could be made even much worse in the (unlikely but possible) event that Trump gets elected again
- US isolationism trends among Republicans -> less global policing and more scope for terrorism
Global Terrorism Index 2022: Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as global epicentre of terrorism, as global deaths decline
Despite global terrorist attacks increasing to 5,226 in 2021, deaths declined slightly by 1.2%. The Ukraine conflict is likely to drive a rise in traditional and cyber terrorism, reversing previous improvements in the region. Terrorism in the West declined substantially, with attacks falling by 68%. The US recorded its lowest score since 2012. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 48% of global terrorism deaths. The Sahel is home to the world’s fastest growing and most-deadly terrorist groups. Myanmar had the largest rise in terrorism with deaths increasing 20 times to 521 deaths in 2021. Islamic State (IS) replaces the Taliban as the world’s deadliest terror group in 2021, with 15 deaths per attack in Niger. Terrorism has become more concentrated, with 119 countries recording no deaths, the best result since 2007. In the West, politically motivated attacks overtook religious attacks, which declined by 82%. There were five times more political attacks than religious attacks--Global terrorist index site 2022
Thank you for the information, does anything that happen in Ukraine/Russia count as Terrorism or is it counted under "war"
@BryanStillwater "Non-state-actor" seems the driving word here. So Russia's bombings of Ukrainian civilians wouldn't count. The grey area would be whether Russia-supported non-internationally-recognized governments and militias in Donbas and Luhansk would count as non-state actors for this.
citizen
·It's confusing to figure out what leaderboard goes with the closed question @admins
Also, is there a way to withdraw from the question? I'm finding my list of old predictions to be cluttered with questions that I can't update (unless, I suppose, I predict on additional questions in the group, but I don't want to be updating all century). Thanks
LukeAdmin
·@citizen > It's confusing to figure out what leaderboard goes with the closed question
That is fair enough. I'll open a ticket to additionally display the leaderboard tags in the "..." menu next to each subquestion to remove confusion.
>is there a way to withdraw from the question?
Since this is part of the Forecasting Our World in Data tournament that has a monetary prize, withdrawal is currently not allowed. That policy may be revised in the future.