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How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
Forecast Timeline
Make a Prediction
| Period | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31 | 50% | |||
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31 | 50% | |||
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31 | 30% | |||
2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31 | 15% | |||
2060-01-01 to 2099-12-31 | 9.3% | |||
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