Group

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

63 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Year	resolution
2023	1.25k
Year	25th	median	75th
2025	1.7k ...	2.81k ...	5.04k ...
2032	2.23k ...	4.04k ...	9.13k ...
2052	2.69k ...	5.15k ...	11.8k ...
2122	922 ...	4.66k ...	17.4k ...

community

<50

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

0.1%

1.17k

2.049k

3.659k

What was the final result?1.25k

Community Baseline Score

58.5

Community Peer Score

18.1

Forecast Timeline

2052

2122

2032

2025

2023

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting Our World in Data

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

Our World in Data

EM Data Bank

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?

1.92

What will be the total number of fatalities from terrorism in the world in the following years?

18.6k

What will the world population be in the following years?

8.22B

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