Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

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M

Group

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

7
6
64 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Yearresolution
Year25thmedian75th
community
<50
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
0.1%
1.17k
2.049k
3.659k

What was the final result?1.25k

Community Baseline Score
58.5
Community Peer Score
18.1
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Forecasting Our World in Data
Environment & Climate
Natural Sciences
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Our World in Data
EM Data Bank
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

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