Group

How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years?

19 comments19

114 forecasters

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Year

resolution

Year

median

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Forecast Timeline

2122

2052

2032

2025

2023

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 12, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 2, 2123

Forecasting Our World in Data

Social Sciences

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Our World in Data

Types of democracy

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Atlantic•Feb 16, 2025

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Why Were Hopes of the 1990s Dashed?

Townhall•Feb 16, 2025

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What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?

53.5

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

Five years after AGI, how much democracy will there be?

13.5

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Oct 12, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2123

Scheduled resolution:

Aug 2, 2123

Forecasting Our World in Data

Social Sciences

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Our World in Data

Types of democracy

Is This How Democrats Win Back the Working Class?

Atlantic•Feb 16, 2025

Confucius, DeepSeek, and Why China would win a war with the United States

Strategic Culture•Feb 16, 2025

Why Were Hopes of the 1990s Dashed?

Townhall•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?

53.5

Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?

Five years after AGI, how much democracy will there be?

13.5