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What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

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	25th	median	75th
2023	1.3e25 ...	2e25 ...	3e25 ...
2025	8.7e25 ...	3.1e26 ...	1e27 ...
2032	4.4e27 ...	8.1e28 ...	1e30 ...
2052	5.5e34 ...	1.6e37 ...	1e40 ...
2122	1.4e45 ...	1.7e54 ...	8.1e65 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1e26

...

1.3e25

2e25

3e25

8.5%

Forecast Timeline

2032

2025

2052

2122

2023

Authors:

casens

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Forecasting Our World in Data

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecasting Our World in Data

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence

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What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Comments

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?