Question

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

Resolved :No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction38%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

49.1

Community Peer Score

6.6

median 38.0%mean 43.5%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

The Atlantic

Germany

Lethal autonomous weapon

AI Can Save Humanity—Or End It

Atlantic•Nov 13, 2024

When A.I. Turns Rogue: How Chatbots Could Become Accomplice to Crime

Observer (NY)•Nov 13, 2024

Is AI dominance inevitable? A technology ethicist says no

Raw Story•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

78%

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%

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