Question

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

Resolved :No38%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction38% (35% - 54%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

49.1

Community Peer Score

6.6

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

The Atlantic

Germany

Lethal autonomous weapon

‘Godfather of AI’ Geoffrey Hinton Warns of Existential Threat to Humanity Within a Decade

Breitbart•Dec 31, 2024

Geoffrey Hinton’s Prediction Of Human Extinction At The Hands Of AI

Forbes•Dec 29, 2024

Regulations needed to stop AI being used for ‘bad things’ – Geoffrey Hinton

Independent•Dec 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

80%

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

65%

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