📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years?

7
11
17 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Launchesresolution
Launches25thmedian75th

PDF

CDF

community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>300
187.4
209.2
228.4
0.7%

What was the final result?211

Community Baseline Score
60.8
Community Peer Score
22.0

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
evanbd
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Economy & Business
Technology
2021-2025 Leaderboard
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Astronomy
Surrey Satellite Technology
Telecommunication
Satellite constellation
Starlink
Falcon 9
Communication
Aerospace engineering

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