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Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

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ATACMS provided

ATACMS not provided

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Candidates		My Prediction		Me
ATACMS provided	no

ATACMS not provided	annulled

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System

Jake Sullivan

Volodymyr Zelensky

US Department of Defense

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System

Jake Sullivan

Volodymyr Zelensky

US Department of Defense

Europe Shrugs Off Russia’s Latest Nuclear Threats

Time•Oct 3, 2024

Russia advances as war in Ukraine sees Putin's forces adopt new tactics amid uncertainty over U.S. support

CBS•Oct 3, 2024

Ukraine Issues Update on New Long Range Missile

Newsweek•Oct 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

MetaculusM

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Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Comments

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?