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Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

68 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

ATACMS provided

ATACMS not provided

Make a Prediction

Provision of ATACMS		My Prediction		Me
ATACMS provided	no

ATACMS not provided	annulled

Resolved Jan 1, 2024

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95.5

Community Peer Score

8.0

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Red Lines in Ukraine

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Military science

MGM-140 ATACMS

M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System

Jake Sullivan

Volodymyr Zelensky

US Department of Defense

Territorial waters

Physics

M142 HIMARS

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

North Korean Missiles Could Be Going to Ukraine

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Moscow Vows Response After Ukraine Fires More US and British Missiles Into Russia

AntiWar•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.7%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Red Lines in Ukraine

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Military science

MGM-140 ATACMS

M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System

Jake Sullivan

Volodymyr Zelensky

US Department of Defense

Territorial waters

Physics

M142 HIMARS

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

North Korean Missiles Could Be Going to Ukraine

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Moscow Vows Response After Ukraine Fires More US and British Missiles Into Russia

AntiWar•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.7%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Comments

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?