Question

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved :No

508 comments508

Total Forecasters1152

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.3

Community Peer Score

9.1

median 0.1%mean 1.2%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Belarus–Russia relations

NATO

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances

Ukraine–NATO relations

Vladimir Putin

Donetsk Republic

United States

Luhansk People's Republic

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

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