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Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

74 forecasters

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Russian Control

Ukrainian Control

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Control of Kherson		My Prediction		Me
Russian Control	annulled

Ukrainian Control	no

Resolved Nov 19, 2022

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Red Lines in Ukraine

Geopolitics

Russia and weapons of mass destruction

NATO State Leader Was 'Preparing' for Putin to Order Nuclear Strike: Book

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

67%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Red Lines in Ukraine

Geopolitics

Russia and weapons of mass destruction

NATO State Leader Was 'Preparing' for Putin to Order Nuclear Strike: Book

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

67%