Question

When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?

Resolved :Above upper bound2024-01-01

8 comments8

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction2024-01-01 (2024-01-01 - 2024-01-01)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2024-01-01

...

>2024-01-01 00:00

87.3%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score

137.6

Community Peer Score

10.1

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Red Lines in Ukraine

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

Dmitry Medvedev

NATO Ally Gives Nearly $300M to Ukraine's Air Defenses

Newsweek•Dec 21, 2024

NATO CANNOT defend Europe from Russia without US, alliance's eastern leaders warn, weeks before Trump enters the White House

Daily Mail•Dec 25, 2024

Moscow Vows Response After Ukraine Fires More US and British Missiles Into Russia

AntiWar•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

25%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

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