Question

Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018?

Resolved :Yes

15 comments15

Total Forecasters75

Community Prediction70%

Make a Prediction

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

48.2

Community Peer Score

11.6

median 70.0%mean 68.1%

Authors:

chipman

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Law

Politics

Supreme Court of the US

A new Supreme Court term begins in the shadow of a presidential election

PBS NewsHour•Oct 8, 2024

Brett Kavanaugh Investigation by FBI 'Manipulated,' New Report Finds

Newsweek•Oct 10, 2024

Why the Supreme Court May Not Decide the 2024 Election After All

Slate•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?

12%

In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?

When will the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy arise?

2025-09-18

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